Refrigerants – The Future is Here

September 30, 2026

It has been five years since we last published our Advisory Note titled The Future of Refrigerants. The future of refrigerants is no longer a future discussion. The transition is now underway and refrigerants have become a key driver of plant selection rather than simply a technical detail.

This Advisory Note covers the transition away from high‑GWP refrigerants, including HFC phase‑down impacts, emerging refrigerant technologies, heat pump adoption, PFAS considerations, and practical strategies for managing refrigerant-related operational, compliance and asset risks across commercial buildings.

HFC Phase Down

The HFC phase-down is well and truly in effect, with approximately a 50% reduction in HFC refrigerant import quotas compared to baseline levels, progressing towards an overall reduction target of 85% by 2036.

The reduced import quotas for HFC refrigerants such as R134a are causing operational impacts for building owners and operators. Prices have increased, availability is reducing, future replacement costs are becoming a concern, and refrigerant leakage is now being reported as part of Scope 1 emissions management.

Heat Pump Technology

Since our last Advisory Note published in 2022, building electrification and decarbonisation strategies have become mainstream across the Australian commercial building sector.

A large component of commercial building electrification relates to the replacement of gas-fired boilers with electric heat pump technology. These heat pumps rely on refrigerants to transfer heat and generate hot water for building heating systems.

Refrigerant selection is therefore no longer just a cooling discussion.

Most suppliers have trended towards lower-GWP heat pump refrigerants such as R32, R1234ze(E), R454B and R515B. Selection of these refrigerants is dependent on heat pump capacity, compressor type and, most importantly, the required hot water delivery temperature.

R290 (propane) has also become a popular refrigerant for heat pumps due to its extremely low GWP of 3 and its ability to deliver higher water temperatures compared to many synthetic refrigerants. The ability to deliver water temperatures of up to 70°C, with temperature differentials similar to conventional gas-fired boiler systems, has made R290 a viable solution for retrofit projects seeking to replace gas-fired heating plant.

Whilst R290 can be installed internally under AS/NZS 5149, commercial applications are typically located outdoors or on rooftops to simplify compliance with refrigerant charge limits, ventilation requirements and risk assessment obligations.

Refrigerant Market Trends

The broader HVAC market has continued to trend towards lower-GWP refrigerant alternatives, including hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), HFC/HFO blends and natural refrigerants.

Adoption of these alternatives is influenced by equipment type, size, configuration and the location of HVAC plant and equipment. The table below highlights common HVAC equipment used within commercial buildings and the current refrigerant replacement trends being observed within the Australian market.

The challenge is that many of the replacement refrigerants carry an A2L classification, such as R32, R454B and R1234ze(E), or an A3 classification, such as R290. These classifications introduce additional considerations relating to plantroom design, ventilation, refrigerant charge limits, risk assessments and installation requirements.

The market has responded well to these changes, with manufacturers providing equipment-specific risk assessments, installation guidance and training programs to support safe implementation. Industry familiarity with the requirements of AS/NZS 5149 has also increased significantly, enabling broader adoption of A2L and A3 refrigerants across commercial HVAC applications.

R513A and R515B are generally considered transitional refrigerants due to their relatively higher GWP compared with emerging low-GWP alternatives. Long-term refrigerant options are increasingly considered to be R1234ze(E), R1233zd(E) and R290, which offer significantly lower GWPs and reduced exposure to future regulatory pressures.

PFAS

While lower-GWP refrigerants significantly reduce climate impacts, some fluorinated refrigerants, including certain HFOs and HFO blends, are also being scrutinised internationally as part of broader discussions regarding per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).

Although there are currently no widespread Australian restrictions on these refrigerants, building owners should be aware that refrigerant selection is increasingly influenced by both climate and chemical management considerations with PFAS refrigerants.

Refrigerant Emissions Management

Under the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, emissions arising from refrigerant leakage from HVAC&R equipment are classified as Scope 1 emissions, as they are released directly from assets owned or controlled by the organisation.

As organisations develop net-zero pathways and respond to increasing sustainability reporting requirements, refrigerant management is becoming an increasingly important component of carbon reduction strategies. In many commercial buildings, annual refrigerant leakage may produce greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to a significant proportion of the building’s direct operational emissions.

The carbon impact of refrigerant leakage is often underestimated. Whilst refrigerant charge quantities may appear relatively small, many traditional refrigerants have Global Warming Potentials hundreds or thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide. Consequently, a relatively minor refrigerant leak can result in a significant greenhouse gas emission event, making effective refrigerant management an increasingly important component of building sustainability and net-zero strategies.

Building owners and operators should consider implementing a refrigerant management plan that includes:

  • Maintaining an accurate refrigerant asset register, including refrigerant type, charge quantity, plant age and condition.
  • Monitoring refrigerant consumption and gas top-ups as an indicator of system leakage.
  • Investigating equipment with recurring refrigerant losses and prioritising repair or replacement.
  • Recording refrigerant additions and recoveries to support carbon reporting requirements.
  • Evaluating opportunities to replace high-GWP refrigerants with lower-GWP alternatives during major plant upgrades.
  • Incorporating refrigerant leakage reduction targets within sustainability and decarbonisation strategies.

“A building may operate on 100% renewable electricity and still generate significant Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions if HVAC refrigerant leakage is not actively managed. As a result, refrigerant management is increasingly becoming a key component of building decarbonisation and net-zero planning.”

 

For more information on Refrigerant Management, please contact:

Jamie Park
Lead – Technical Advice (VIC)
A.G. Coombs Advisory 

+61 3 9248 2700
jpark@agcoombs.com.au


 
 

Glossary:

  • GWP: Global Warming Potential – a measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere compared to carbon dioxide.
  • HFC: Hydrofluorocarbons – traditional refrigerants being phased down due to high GWP.
  • HFO: Hydrofluoroolefins – A class of refrigerants with lower GWP, used as alternatives to traditional HFCs.
  • Natural Refrigerants: Refrigerants derived from natural sources, such as ammonia, carbon dioxide, and hydrocarbons like propane.
  • PFAS: Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances – a group of synthetic chemicals, some of which are found in certain refrigerants and are under environmental scrutiny.
  • HVAC: Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning – systems used for indoor environmental comfort.
  • VRF: Variable Refrigerant Flow – HVAC system that uses refrigerant as the cooling and heating medium, allowing precise temperature control in multiple zones by varying the flow of refrigerant to each indoor unit.

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